Logistics trends in 2025: 9 predictions for the transport market
Logistics trends: transport prices, development, digitalisation and automation through artificial intelligence and more
There were hardly any new start-ups or takeovers on the market, resulting in an overall decrease in capacities. The ongoing shortage of drivers is likely to continue fuelling this trend in 2025, and AI in logistics will not magically solve all the problems.
In his 9 predictions for the transport industry in 2025, Gunnar Gburek, Head of Business Affairs at TIMOCOM, looks at how logistics in Germany and Europe will develop over the coming year and what companies should be prepared for. Get a glimpse of the near and distant future of logistics!
These are the most important trends in logistics in 2025:
1. Skilled drivers and dispatchers will remain in short supply and AI will not (yet) be able to replace them in logistics.
In 2025, there will still be hardly any new drivers on the market, and, more importantly, not enough qualified ones. The same goes for dispatchers and employees in the freight business. Although numerous software companies offer AI-supported solutions to ease the burden on dispatchers, it will take some time before these are used across the board in freight companies. And even then, it is questionable whether they can really fully compensate for the staff shortage.
Autonomous lorries will also not yet be on the scene in 2025, meaning that lorries will remain ubiquitous. It is therefore still important to treat existing employees well and show them appreciation – which, incidentally, should be the case for society as a whole. After all, their performance is just as crucial to the system as that of employees in the police, fire brigade or health system.
2. Transport prices will rise due to a lack of capacity
Due to the ongoing decrease in capacities and consistently high transport volumes, there will be competition for capacities and higher prices will have to be offered for last-minute transport. This will be particularly hard on freight companies who have signed long-term contracts at current prices. Although seasonal fluctuations will cause prices to ease at times, the overall level will be and remain higher than in previous years.
If demand for freight space increases in 2025 due to slight economic growth, the ongoing shortage of freight space and the associated high prices could quickly cause any fledgling recovery to die off again. Goods that do not reach the customer cannot be billed. Securing capacities by treating service providers well remains the order of the day. The shift from a buyer’s market to a seller’s market will become increasingly apparent.
Read the latest report from our TIMOCOM Transport Barometer here, containing plenty insights and figures on the transport market in the last quarter.
3. Increase in insolvencies and business closures
Despite rising prices for transport, more and more hauliers will be left with less at the end of the day, because this will barely cover the cost increases. Some will experience business difficulties or even insolvency, while others will try to avoid the crisis by attempting to sell their company.
However, this will rarely be possible, as even larger companies are not interested in expanding through acquisitions. Another problem for many small companies is the fact that the next generation has little interest in continuing the family business. By the end of 2025, there will be significantly fewer hauliers than today and, as a result, reduced capacities.
4. Rising energy costs will make long-term contracts more difficult
Personnel and operating costs rose significantly in 2024. This trend will continue in 2025 due to an increasing number of crises and the likely continuation of wars in the world, especially when it comes to energy and diesel prices. This will place a considerable burden on hauliers and freight forwarders, further reducing their already low profit margins. They will therefore want to reduce their risk with longer-term contracts, either through tighter diesel floaters or other variables.
It is likely that some will also apply to long-term tenders less often and will use marketplaces to look for short-term, lucrative and less risky offers. The lack of transport capacity will mean that this is the only way for many clients to find hauliers, especially during peak periods around Easter or Christmas. Of course, the conditions will be different from those in framework agreements, some of which are valid for more than a year.
5. Fewer full loads – more part loads
Due to the stagnating economy, the absolute transport volume in 2025 will barely increase overall, at least in Germany. The number of shipments is not expected to decrease, however; manufacturing companies will simply be forced to order smaller shipments.
This will result in more part loads, with simpler full truck loads (FTL) becoming less common. For clients, it will therefore be more expensive and the service providers will face significantly more effort. Unfortunately, this will also lead to an increase in the number of empty runs, a trend that should actually be moving in the opposite direction!
6. Cooperation and networking to avoid capacity bottlenecks
The ongoing pressure on transport capacities and costs is causing more and more companies to consider working together more closely and helping each other. In these difficult, complex and uncertain times, many find that they struggle to make any headway on their own. This calls for greater collaboration.
But due to the different systems used by the companies, communication is more difficult, disruptions caused by switching communication channels are highly prone to error and manual logistical processes tie up scarce human resources. Interfaces and digital platforms will therefore become more and more important. Even though this increases the level of transparency and challenges the traditional customer protection prevalent in the logistics industry, the risk of losing clients is manageable given the limited capacities. There is still plenty to do in 2025.
7. Limited use of electric and hydrogen lorries
The use of low-emission vehicles will see further initial attempts in 2025. Medium-sized and large transport companies in particular have started conducting real-world tests using new drive technologies. In 2025, they will continue to ramp up test runs where they consider it useful and where they can get vehicles from the OEMs.
However, there is still some uncertainty as to which technology will ultimately prevail. Therefore, it will not yet be enough to make the significant contribution to reducing CO2 that politicians had hoped for. Above all, their use will become more important for industry and trade in view of CSRD guidelines.
The use of HVO-100 as a substitute diesel fuel could play a more significant role, if this environmentally friendly fuel were to become available in larger quantities. Despite numerous concerns, this currently seems more feasible than rapidly expanding hydrogen or e-charging stations.
8. No increase in the shift to rail transport
The increase in the transport of trailers or goods by rail is not likely to accelerate in the coming year, and not just because of the infrastructure-related barriers. The railways are also having difficulties in finding enough new, qualified employees. Combined transport will only grow if hauliers expand their capacities with more trailers that can be lifted by crane.
There will still be a certain reluctance here, at least in the first half of the year. Hauliers will only start investing more again when the economy picks up. But this will only have a long-term sustainable effect on the modal shift if the political framework is significantly improved.
Only the rail companies themselves or unshakeable optimists believe that there will be a noticeable increase in single wagon or group wagon traffic. The performance of rail transport in this sector is too poor, and the ever-smaller shipments are also an argument against a shift, however sensible and environmentally friendly it may be.
9. Risk of cybercrime in unprotected environments
Advances in technology, such as artificial intelligence systems and their applications, are making it increasingly easy for criminals to find new ways to deceive and commit fraud. No one can guarantee 100% protection at all times. The security of IT systems therefore requires continuous measures and regular updates, as well as particular vigilance on the part of employees.
This entails a significant financial burden and personnel costs, especially for small companies. In the transport industry, business owners should be especially wary of offers from supposedly reputable service providers or orders by e-mail and check the details carefully. Unfortunately, even in 2025, there will still be cases where cybercriminals find ‘open doors’ outside of secure platforms and marketplaces. This can only be prevented if the logistics industry uses secure digital solutions, channels and networks with verified parties that offer a higher level of security.
Download our exclusive checklist for protection against cargo theft now and stay one step ahead.
About the author: Gunnar Gburek
A business graduate with a focus on trade and logistics, Mr Gburek has years of experience in the logistics industry, including as CEO of the logistic service provider Hasenkamp, specialising in deliveries to retailers and private customers, and as the Divisional Head of Logistics at the Federal Association for Supply Chain Management, Procurement and Logistics (BME). He become company spokesman and Head of Business Affairs at TIMOCOM at the end of 2016, and has held the position ever since.
You may also be interested in:
