TIMOCOM transport barometer: Negative sentiment despite positive outlook for the transport market in 2025? (EN)
Seasonal decline in freight offers in Q4, but well above the previous year’s levels, and good forecasts for European road freight transport.
Freight share at a glance with year-on-year comparison
The year 2024 ended with a slight seasonal decline in freight offers, but transport demand in Europe is and will remain high. Those looking for truck transport during the holiday season had to dig a little deeper into their pockets and pay higher prices. In 2025, the cost of road freight transport and therefore transport prices will continue to rise.
By the end of the year, the ratio of freight to vehicle space had not reached equilibrium: the freight share was consistently above 70% up to and including December and outweighed the available truck capacity. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw 79% more freight offered across Europe than during the same quarter of the previous year. The enormous demand led to a near doubling (+92%) of the freight offers posted on the spot market of the TIMOCOM Marketplace throughout 2024. According to analyses by Transport Intelligence Ltd., sectors such as e-commerce, manufacturing and retail fuelled this demand as companies replenished their inventories and transported goods across borders.
The transport market in Germany
In 2024 as a whole, a total of 70% more freight entries were registered in German domestic transport than in 2023. In Germany, Q4 saw a 59% increase in freight offers compared to the same quarter of the previous year, despite the stagnating economic development. ‘Some freight forwarders and hauliers were able to profit from the Christmas business, but overall the transport and logistics sector is pessimistic about the coming months,’ says Gunnar Gburek, Head of Business Affairs at TIMOCOM. According to the ifo Institute, only one in eight companies in Germany expects business to improve in 2025.
Cargo space offers in 2024 down 12% year-on-year
12% fewer vehicle space offers than in the previous year
In 2024, the vehicle space offers posted on the TIMOCOM Marketplace fell by 12% compared to the previous year. The reasons for this include the long-standing shortage of drivers, which is currently limiting capacities, but also the increased costs, which cannot be passed on. In the past quarter, there was an increase in vehicle space in the high-demand month of October compared to the same month of the previous year (+6%). However, the bottom line is that in the fourth quarter there were 3% fewer trucks overall on the TIMOCOM Marketplace than in the same quarter of the previous year.
According to surveys by the German Economic Institute (IW), only companies in seven sectors are planning to hire new employees this year. These include freight forwarders that want to expand their human resources. ‘The transport companies’ hopes of improved business are therefore outweighing the generally cautious economic mood,’ concludes Gunnar Gburek.
Most popular means of transport in road freight in 2024
Curtainsiders and tautliners are by far the most frequently requested transport units in freight offers in 2024. These types of semi-trailers were requested in 60.3% of freight offers last year. In second place, at 18.6%, are megatrailers or jumbo trucks, closely followed by thermo-trucks and refrigerated trailers at 13.2%.
The most frequently requested semi-trailer types in 2024
Offer prices and price proposals at a high level before the turn of the year
The limited vehicle space available makes truck capacities a valuable commodity. Prices are hotly contested in the logistics industry. Depending on the distance and requirements, the availabilities and therefore the offer price of the clients as well as the price proposals of potential contractors fluctuate. This was very clearly evident in the fourth quarter. From October to Christmas, the average weekly transport prices offered across Europe were between €1.44/km and €1.74/km, rising by around 20% in the last two weeks of December compared to the previous weeks. So anyone who wanted to send a truck of freight shortly before Christmas or between Christmas and New Year had to pay a little more. Across Europe, asking prices rose by up to 16.5% on average compared to the same quarter of the previous year. The price demanded by hauliers was up to 18% higher on average than in the same quarter of the previous year. Within Germany, transport prices averaged between €1.60/km and €1.86/km. This was partly due to the recent further rise in diesel costs.
Outlook for the current year 2025
High demand for transport on the spot market is expected to continue in the first quarter of 2025, as long-term contractual relationships in particular are being avoided due to the uncertain future. The freight-to-vehicle space ratio is not expected to fall below 65:35. ‘Due to Easter falling a month later this year, demand won’t pick up again until April, causing the freight share to rise above 70%,’ predicts Gunnar Gburek of TIMOCOM. ‘With demand on the rise, transport prices will also increase, not least to compensate for the significant rise in CO2 and toll costs.’
Analysts at Transport Intelligence expect European road freight transport to grow by 2.0% in real terms to over €436 billion by 2025. ‘All in all, the outlook for the European transport sector is not quite so bleak. However, it is questionable whether German logistics companies, which mainly operate domestically, will benefit from this, since the current situation here is one of stagnation,’ says Gunnar Gburek.
The year 2024 ended with a slight seasonal decline in freight offers, but transport demand in Europe is and will remain high. Those looking for truck transport during the holiday season had to dig a little deeper into their pockets and pay higher prices. In 2025, the cost of road freight transport and therefore transport prices will continue to rise.
By the end of the year, the ratio of freight to vehicle space had not reached equilibrium: the freight share was consistently above 70% up to and including December and outweighed the available truck capacity. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw 79% more freight offered across Europe than during the same quarter of the previous year. The enormous demand led to a near doubling (+92%) of the freight offers posted on the spot market of the TIMOCOM Marketplace throughout 2024. According to analyses by Transport Intelligence Ltd., sectors such as e-commerce, manufacturing and retail fuelled this demand as companies replenished their inventories and transported goods across borders.
The transport market in Germany
In 2024 as a whole, a total of 70% more freight entries were registered in German domestic transport than in 2023. In Germany, Q4 saw a 59% increase in freight offers compared to the same quarter of the previous year, despite the stagnating economic development. ‘Some freight forwarders and hauliers were able to profit from the Christmas business, but overall the transport and logistics sector is pessimistic about the coming months,’ says Gunnar Gburek, Head of Business Affairs at TIMOCOM. According to the ifo Institute, only one in eight companies in Germany expects business to improve in 2025.
Cargo space offers in 2024 down 12% year-on-year
12% fewer vehicle space offers than in the previous year
In 2024, the vehicle space offers posted on the TIMOCOM Marketplace fell by 12% compared to the previous year. The reasons for this include the long-standing shortage of drivers, which is currently limiting capacities, but also the increased costs, which cannot be passed on. In the past quarter, there was an increase in vehicle space in the high-demand month of October compared to the same month of the previous year (+6%). However, the bottom line is that in the fourth quarter there were 3% fewer trucks overall on the TIMOCOM Marketplace than in the same quarter of the previous year.
According to surveys by the German Economic Institute (IW), only companies in seven sectors are planning to hire new employees this year. These include freight forwarders that want to expand their human resources. ‘The transport companies’ hopes of improved business are therefore outweighing the generally cautious economic mood,’ concludes Gunnar Gburek.
Most popular means of transport in road freight in 2024
Curtainsiders and tautliners are by far the most frequently requested transport units in freight offers in 2024. These types of semi-trailers were requested in 60.3% of freight offers last year. In second place, at 18.6%, are megatrailers or jumbo trucks, closely followed by thermo-trucks and refrigerated trailers at 13.2%.
The most frequently requested semi-trailer types in 2024
Offer prices and price proposals at a high level before the turn of the year
The limited vehicle space available makes truck capacities a valuable commodity. Prices are hotly contested in the logistics industry. Depending on the distance and requirements, the availabilities and therefore the offer price of the clients as well as the price proposals of potential contractors fluctuate. This was very clearly evident in the fourth quarter. From October to Christmas, the average weekly transport prices offered across Europe were between €1.44/km and €1.74/km, rising by around 20% in the last two weeks of December compared to the previous weeks. So anyone who wanted to send a truck of freight shortly before Christmas or between Christmas and New Year had to pay a little more. Across Europe, asking prices rose by up to 16.5% on average compared to the same quarter of the previous year. The price demanded by hauliers was up to 18% higher on average than in the same quarter of the previous year. Within Germany, transport prices averaged between €1.60/km and €1.86/km. This was partly due to the recent further rise in diesel costs.
Outlook for the current year 2025
High demand for transport on the spot market is expected to continue in the first quarter of 2025, as long-term contractual relationships in particular are being avoided due to the uncertain future. The freight-to-vehicle space ratio is not expected to fall below 65:35. ‘Due to Easter falling a month later this year, demand won’t pick up again until April, causing the freight share to rise above 70%,’ predicts Gunnar Gburek of TIMOCOM. ‘With demand on the rise, transport prices will also increase, not least to compensate for the significant rise in CO2 and toll costs.’
Analysts at Transport Intelligence expect European road freight transport to grow by 2.0% in real terms to over €436 billion by 2025. ‘All in all, the outlook for the European transport sector is not quite so bleak. However, it is questionable whether German logistics companies, which mainly operate domestically, will benefit from this, since the current situation here is one of stagnation,’ says Gunnar Gburek.
More information on the current situation on the transport market and the latest changes to freight offer figures on selected European routes are also available in the TIMOCOM Transport Barometer Report.